Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has urged investors to buy commodities now and worry about a recession later. The company’s analysts see commodities as “the best asset class to own later in the cycle, where demand remains above supply.” Meanwhile, “stocks may take a hit as inflation remains high and the Fed is more likely to surprise on the aggressive side,” Goldman noted.
Goldman Sachs Recommendation: Buy Commodities Now
Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has recommended that investors buy commodities. In a note titled “Buy Commodities Now, Worry About Recession Later,” published on Monday, Goldman wrote: “Our economists view the risk of a recession outside of Europe in the next 12 months as relatively low.” Company analysts including Sabine Schels, Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin explained:
With oil a commodity of last resort in an era of severe energy shortages, we believe the downturn in the entire oil complex offers an attractive entry point for long-term investment.
In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week: “We are taking strong and swift action to moderate demand to better align with supply and keep inflation expectations anchored. We will continue this way until we are sure the job is done.”
Furthermore, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel noted on Saturday that central banks around the world are at risk of losing public confidence and must now act forcefully to combat inflation, including if you drag your savings into a recession.
“From a cross-asset perspective, equities may suffer as inflation remains elevated and the Fed is more likely to surprise on the aggressive side,” Goldman analysts further noted, explaining:
Commodities, on the other hand, are the best asset class to own later in the cycle, where demand remains above supply.
The final phase of the cycle normally implies an increase in inflationary pressures and an economy that exceeds the maximum rate of economic growth.
Goldman Sachs also warned: “We recognize that the macroeconomic environment remains challenging and the US dollar could rise further in the near term.”
Currie, who heads commodity research at Goldman Sachs, believes recessions are a natural part of a prolonged commodity supercycle. He told Reuters in November last year: “We expect a structural bull market in commodities, very similar to what we saw in the 2000s or 1970s.”
The analyst told CNBC in June that we are at the start of a commodity supercycle. “This is the first round of a commodity super cycle, it’s not just oil and gas, it’s metals, it’s mining, it’s agriculture, because the sector has suffered from over a decade of underinvestment,” he said.