The price of Bitcoin can be unpredictable. But surprisingly, a specific model managed to predict the 2021 peak above $60,000 already in 2019.
This same model now points to a peak close to $732,000 per coin. Is this a realistic estimate or pure hope? Let’s take a look at the model and find out.
Predict the latest bull market peak years in advance
In 2019, the preferred model for predicting future Bitcoin prices was the now-debunked Plan B Stock-To-Flow (S2F) model. But around the same time, Greg Cipolaro attempted to modify the S2F model with very accurate results.
While Plan B failed to raise the price per BTC above the projected $100,000, Cipolaro’s model peaked at around $60,000.
Bitcoin hit $65,000 in April 2021 and then $68,000 in November 2021. At the very least, BTCUSD beat its modest estimates, while the price fell below Plan B by miles.
The model is based on post-halving supply price targets. More important than what happened after the 2020 halving, however, is what Cipolaro’s model predicts after the next halving.
Could Bitcoin hit $732,000 after the 2024 halving?
While it’s notable to get it right just once based on Cipolaro’s model, it could be a matter of luck or coincidence. If the model works again, you are more likely to find something meaningful.
Especially when the next projected target is $732,000 per BTC. The target is much higher than most existing estimates, which point to between $100,000 and $200,000 per coin.
This represents an increase of approximately 1,800% from current levels. From the Black Thursday low of $3,800 to the 2021 high of $68,000 represents a return of almost 1,600%, so these figures are not out of the realm of possibilities for the king of cryptocurrencies.
During 2017 alone, Bitcoin increased by more than 2,000%. And this occurred after the price had already appreciated more than 400%. Today, Bitcoin is up 140% from its 2022 lows. Could the leading cryptocurrency by market cap add another 1,800% to reach the peak predicted by the model?